Kansas might win its first-round game. Kansas had a fairly tough draw because I thought the 8-9 matchup of Kentucky and Villanova gave them a challenging second-round game.
Kansas got a pretty easy bracket all things considered. The teams Kansas could play in the Sweet 16 (Pomeroy thinks Southern Illinois, Virginia Tech and Illinois all have a 28%-38% chance of getting there) would all likely be fairly easy wins for Kansas. Overall, Pomeroy says Kansas has a 48% chance of getting to the Final Four and a 19% chance of winning the title. Florida, on the other hand, has a 38% chance of getting to the Final Four and an 11% chance of repeating.
Last year KU entered the NCAAs on a 15-1 tear that included a three-day sweep through the Big 12 tournament. The Jayhawks won all but two of those games by double figures — too easily, it turned out, to steel a team starting three freshmen and two sophomores for the pressures of the postseason.
Kansas still is young. Sophomores Mario Chalmers, Julian Wright and Brandon Rush, their fluid 6-6 star, fill out the starting lineup with Robinson and the 6-11 Kaun. The first two players off the bench are freshmen, bulldog guard Sherron Collins and forward Darrell Arthur. There isn't a senior on the roster.
KU ranks among the bottom third in the nation in three-point production, making a modest six a game. Although Robinson hit two free throws with 5.3 seconds left in overtime to nail down Sunday's win against Texas, the Jayhawks rank near the bottom fourth in foul shooting at 66.7%.
A win Friday against an outmanned 16th seed will get KU out of its two-year tournament rut but otherwise satisfy few.
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