Two months ago, we took a look at the 2008 NBA free agent class, having in mind that players who are to become free agents at the end of the season should have extra motivation to take advantage of the opportunity to cash in and secure a lucrative financial future. The presumption was, and is, that this incentive can elevate performance, which then translates to increased fantasy numbers.
The 2007-08 NBA free agent pool still could be one of the best in recent years, if not as exciting as it may have appeared prior to the season and the signing of extensions by former first round picks. After that, though, the ability of many of the remaining FA's to switch teams to sign long term max-type deals may be few and far between. With the exception of the Philadelphia 76ers, right now it appears that teams will not have the cap space to do very much at all, other than re-signing their own free agents. Also, 12 teams at this time are over the luxury tax threshold, and other teams are trying to avoid the payroll level that triggers that penalty.
Nevertheless, there is a list of interesting free agents for 2008. However, many may not be simply motivated to effectively inflate their numbers, but are instead, or additionally, distracted by their situations and the second-guessing. Therefore, we have a mixed bag of performances and fantasy implications amongst the 2008 free agent class.
Let's take a look at those who are still part of the free agent class of 2008 and how they are doing at the end of the first quarter of the season. What can be expected of them from here?
Early Termination Option (ETO) Candidates
These are key players whose contracts run through the 2008-09 season, but who can "opt out" of the final year and become unrestricted free agents at the end of 2007-08.
GUARDS
Gilbert Arenas (Wizards) – Arenas would have been the prize of free agent in 2008 had he not had the continued troubles with his knee and the second surgery. He first announced before the season that he would opt out, which he is still likely to do, but the chance of him signing elsewhere seems slim. He has since indicated his desire to re-sign with the Wizards. No matter his intentions, if and when he comes back this season, he has every reason to post the biggest numbers he can.
Baron Davis (Warriors) – Davis is a fantasy phenom when healthy, and he has remained so 21 games in. It was speculated that Davis would come into this season in shape, and be extra motivated, given his FA status. So far, he has done exactly that. He has averaged 22.8 points, 2 threes, 5.2 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. He also averages 2.8 turnovers per game, but that could be (and has been) worse. He has improved this year over last in every one of those categories, except FG% (41.6% so far this year compared to 43.9% last year).
Allen Iverson (Nuggets) – A.I. just wants to be in a situation that gives him the best chance to win. He does not need the motivation of free agency to perform at a high level. However, he is talking new contract lately, and he is posting slightly better numbers this year than he did last year as a Nugget. He is also still capable of going off on the offensive end, as his 51-point outburst in a recent loss to the Lakers showed. For the year, he is averaging 25.3 points, 7.5 assists, 2.4 steals, but a horrendous 3.9 turnovers per game. He was over 4 per game last year, and has always been a turnover machine. His season should be as it is now - 25 points, reasonable percentages, 7 dimes, 2+ steals, some threes and a lot of free throws.
FORWARDS
Shawn Marion (Suns) – Phoenix may still trade Marion before they extend his contract. His apparent unhappiness seemed to have been tabled, at least publicly, in the interest of the team – and perhaps in his self-interest. If there is no extension, and he does opt out, he would forego the final year of his contract which pays $17.8 million. So, he may await unrestricted free agency in 2009. The Matrix is again posting those unique, all-around fantasy numbers, but he is arguably down a bit this year. His free-throwing has suffered, in particular. Normally 80% + from the line, Marion is hitting on less than 70% so far this year. Distracted?
Elton Brand (Los Angeles Clippers) – Elton Brand is in his option year, and as said before the season, he may have extra motivation to return as soon as possible from his torn Achilles, to show that he can still perform at the level that he and fantasy owners have become accustomed.
Corey Maggette (Los Angeles Clippers) – Corey Maggette is the classic fantasy free agent case, and he has performed as such this season so far. There is almost no question he wants to sign elsewhere, or be traded. Even with the unbelievable emergence of Chris Kaman (in Elton Brand's absence), Corey Maggette has managed to bring most of his numbers up a notch this year – averaging over 20 points and 7 rebounds per game. He is even more prolific at the stripe this season, hitting over 84% of his 9 attempts per contest. Look for him to do as well, or even better, as the season progresses. Even Mike Dunleavy can't stop him.
Ron Artest (Kings) – Artest is a free agent who is in as certain a position to benefit from opting out as anyone – provided he stays out of trouble. Can he do it? It is arguable that he is really playing as well as possible for his team, and something doesn't seem quite right with him, but he is filling up the stat sheet to give his agent something to work with in the offseason. Last year (2006-07), Ron-Ron averaged 18.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 threes, and 2.1 steals per game. This year so far, he is at 20.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.5 threes, and 2.3 steals.
CENTERS
Jermaine O'Neal (Pacers) – Like Marion, O'Neal may likely play out his contract through 2009. There is still a chance he could be traded at some point before that. He is another player whose play and stats is not typically influenced by his status. The issue for O'Neal and his fantasy value is strictly health. He has been limited this season too, and thus has been having a very off year. He is averaging 15 points and less than 8 rebounds per game. However, he has looked better recently, averaging 20.8 points and 9 rebounds per game over the last 4. He is still not blocking shots the way he can, down to around 1.5 per game. He should be around 2.5. So, despite the encouraging flashes, I wouldn't hold out much hope for the old O'Neal. The wheels don't look the same.
Restricted Free Agents
These are players who will be free agents, but their present team can match any offer, if they wish. Most are players who have not signed extensions yet, primarily because they feel they are worth more than their team management does at this point.
GUARDS
Monta Ellis (Warriors) – Ellis is one of the unexpected exceptions whose fantasy value is down, rather than up in his free agent year, albeit restricted free agency. He is more or less stuck, in that the Warriors are unlikely to grant him a huge extension, and another team is not likely to try and pry him away with an offer the Warriors wouldn't match anyway. Ellis is averaging 16, 4, and 3 and he is not a 3-point shooter. He's been a disappointment so far in a year where it was projected he would step up to a higher level after his breakout 2006-07 campaign.
Daniel Gibson (Cavs) – Gibson is a restricted free agent, and with the chance to start, he has elevated his play. He has the motivation this year, and it will be interesting to see what comes of him later this season or next year, as the Cavs seem to be in most point guard trade rumors. In the meantime, Gibson has exceeded expectations, especially from 3-point land. He is 12.8 points and 2.5 threes per game, and shooting good percentages across the board. If he could play in a system where he could raise his assists, then fantasy owners would really have a steal.
Jose Calderon (Raptors) – Calderon would be a starting PG on many teams. He continues to be the understudy to T.J. Ford, but has had considerable chance to play this season so far, with Ford missing action frequently. He may very well end up elsewhere next year somehow, with some team giving him a sizeable deal that the Raptors just cannot justify matching. He has averaged 9.9 points, 7.6 assists, and only 1.3 turnovers in 25 minutes per game this year. Plus, he is shooting over 50%, just as he did last season. He is a valuable backup PG this season, and could be a fantasy steal, no later than next year.
Ben Gordon (Bulls) – How could Gordon turn down 5 years, $50 million? 18 points per game, less than 40% from the floor, 4 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Any fantasy owner could have told him to take that deal! He may be a motivated restricted free agent, but he's not showing it. He's the same roller coaster as always. The effect of trade rumors have perhaps been overriding too.
Louis Williams (76ers) – The 6-1 Williams has made the most of his minutes – until a recent toe injury. He needs more than 22 minutes per game to be of significant value, though, as he is primarily a good-shooting scorer who does not contribute significantly enough in other categories with that PT.
Kelenna Azubuike (Warriors) – It has been K.A., not Monta Ellis, who has parlayed his opportunity in his free agent year into the step up in fantasy value. He too is a victim of the uncertain lineup rotations, but on the year he is averaging a creditable 13.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.2 threes in over 30 minutes per game. Azubuike sees time at small forward too, which has benefited his playing time.
FORWARDS
Josh Smith (Hawks) – Smith has played like a man possessed with a future payday. It will be interesting to see if the Hawks, with their dysfunctional ownership situation, will allow Smith to get away. So far this season, he is averaging 17.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2 steals, and a mind-boggling 3.5 blocks per game. He also seems motivated to take ill-advised shots, as he is only hitting just above 40% from the floor. Still, he is a fantasy phenom for this year, and no doubt for next year too.
Luol Deng (Bulls) – He didn't get the extension he wanted, which has perhaps motivated him to improve on his numbers over the way he started out, when he may have been affected by the Kobe trade rumors. However, he still remains an overrated fantasy forward – even when he's hot. He is really at best no more than a 20 and 7 SF, who does not shoot 3s, who does not get many steals, and who does not block shots – no matter how motivated he may be.
Andre Iguodala (76ers) – He inexplicably turned down a $57 million deal from the Sixers, and has played down a bit most of this season, not up. However, he is still having a very fine fantasy season, and I like him to outperform his play so far as the season grinds forward.
Dorell Wright (HEAT) – Restricted FA Wright has gotten a chance to play lately, and has had a couple of big games – 18 and 17 against the Warriors, and 16 and 12 against the Suns. He can provide valuable frontcourt depth, if still floating on the waiver wire.
Craig Smith (T-Wolves) – A player who has come on in his restricted FA year is forward Craig Smith. Ryan Gomes, in the same situation, might have been expected to be more of a factor in camp, but it has been Smith who has gotten the greater opportunity. He is averaging over 11 points and nearly 5 rebounds in just 20 minutes per game – but in the last 8, he is averaging 16 and 6, including a career high 36 points against the Wizards.
Ronny Turiaf (Lakers) – Turiaf has played well for the Lakers this year, and while he does not provide much fantasy value this year, he might (just might) next season if for some reason the Lakers lose him to an overpaid offer sheet. As mentioned in the first installment, Turiaf's contract status may be additionally motivating, but he seems to be driven just by his beating heart. It's just not likely he will see more than 20 minutes per game, and that's not enough for fantasy owners.
Walter Herrmann (Bobcats) – Boy, was I (and a lot of others) wrong about him. He is truly a restricted free agent – in fact, he has been completely shackled.
CENTERS
Emeka Okafor (Bobcats) – Okafor turned down $13 million this year to opt for restricted FA after the season. Is he motivated now more than before? 13 and 10 with 2 blocks compared to 14 and 11 and over 2.5 blocks last year (in 1:30 more per game last year). If he is, he's not really showing it.
Andris Biedrins (Warriors) – Biedrins is in a good position. He didn't get the big extension (such as 5 years, $50 million) he hoped to receive, but the better he plays now, the better chance he has to secure more than a one-year qualifying offer next year. He was an emerging fantasy player coming into this season, and that has not changed. Despite the Don Nelson musical chairs approach to rotations, Biedrins is at 11.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and shooting over 63% from the floor – all improvements over last year (other than blocks) – in the same minutes per game (29). There is upside in his PT.
Unrestricted Free Agents
These are players whose contracts expire at the end of 2007-08. They will be able to sign with any team during the summer. Their present teams can offer the maximum term contract.
GUARDS
Beno Udrih (G, Kings) – He's an unrestricted free agent, injury to Mike Bibby gave him a chance, and he is taking full advantage. He is averaging nearly 15 points per game and filling up the other stat sheet columns enough to be of steady value in deeper leagues. His value is certainly in question with the impending return of Mike Bibby – but stay abreast of those trade rumors!
Ricky Davis (T-Wolves) – Swingman Davis was a prime candidate for a career year and bonus fantasy value when he entered the year as a T-Wolf in the final year of his contract. However, after the trade to the Miami HEAT, Davis' value for this year was reduced dramatically. If he is able to sign with a bad team next year (that does not have Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal on the roster), then he could have considerable value as the fantasy garbage man we know he can be. For this year, though, expect the mediocrity to continue.
FORWARDS
Antawn Jamison (Wizards) – Jamison has played surprisingly well, even in his free agent year. I thought his game would decline, especially on the boards, but he has really kept it up. In fact, rebounding is where he has improved the most, whereas his threes are down a bit. He still makes 1.8 per game, to go with 21.4 points and 10.5 rebounds. Oddly enough, he is really the only truly unrestricted free agent forward to speak of.
CENTERS
Kwame Brown (Los Angeles Lakers) – Good post defender. Sets jarring screens. Cannot stay healthy. Does not seem motivated. No fantasy value. He makes DeSagana Diop the top unrestricted free agent center for 2008.
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